Customer Retention

Contract-Renewal
Forecasting

Turn renewal risk into renewal readiness — weeks before the window opens.

The Challenge

Renewals managed reactively are renewals at risk

For businesses running on multi-year service or subscription contracts, renewal revenue is the most predictable — and most preventable — source of churn. Yet most organisations manage renewals on a calendar, not on risk signals.

By the time a customer signals disengagement, the renewal conversation is already compromised. The accounts that needed proactive attention three months ago are the ones that lapse today.

Signals we model

Contract age & term structure · Service delivery performance history · Engagement frequency & recency · Support ticket sentiment & volume · Payment pattern changes · Prior renewal behaviour · Economic & market context

Our Approach

How we build it

1

Contract Portfolio Mapping

We map every active contract against its renewal timeline, service tier, and historical renewal pattern — establishing a baseline that distinguishes at-risk portfolios from stable ones.

2

Risk Model Development

We train renewal risk models on your historical outcomes, incorporating service performance, engagement decay, and payment signals — producing a calibrated risk score per contract.

3

Early-Warning Scoring

Contracts are scored continuously, with risk elevations triggering alerts to service and sales teams well ahead of the renewal window — when intervention is still effective.

4

Guided Outreach Playbooks

Beyond the score, we deliver actionable playbooks: which accounts to call first, what issues to address, and what interventions have worked for similar risk profiles in the past.

Typical Outcomes

What to expect

$10M+
Recurring revenue protected in first full year of deployment
250K
Contracts scored and monitored simultaneously at enterprise scale
Weeks
Early warning lead time before renewal windows open
Daily
Risk score refresh as service and engagement signals evolve
Related Case Study

$10M in revenue protected in year one

A global B2B services company with 250,000 renewable service contracts deployed our renewal forecasting model alongside an AI-powered retention assistant — shifting the entire organisation from reactive to proactive renewal management.

Read the case study →

From calendar to risk-driven

Before the engagement, renewal outreach was calendar-based — teams worked renewal lists in date order. After deployment, outreach was risk-ordered and contextualised, with the highest-risk contracts receiving attention months before their renewal dates.

How much renewal revenue is at risk right now?

We can model your contract portfolio and give you a risk estimate before the engagement begins.

Get a portfolio assessment